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Author Topic: US Presidential Election Tuesday, November 8, 2016  (Read 35275 times)
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YooperModerator
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« on: January 29, 2016, 11:27:25 pm »

This coming Monday, February 1, the Iowa Caucus begins what is the long and very confusing, for some, process to garner delegates and nominations for the election of our next President.  Some info below to help you kind of understand how this works.  If you figure it out, please consider yourself an expert to appear regularly on all news cycles because I don't know anybody who really gets it but have fun trying:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/01/27/iowa-caucuses-how-the-parties-processes-differ-and-whats-new-in-2016/

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Iowa caucus goers will gather on Monday evening in schools, libraries and community centers across the state for gatherings run by the Democratic and Republican parties.

The caucuses involve “getting together with your neighbors and debating, talking and actually having civil conversations,” said Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa. “That doesn’t happen in New Hampshire and South Carolina,” he said, referring to the next two states holding primaries.

http://classroom.synonym.com/many-states-use-caucus-rather-primary-10319.html

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The Importance of Iowa
Iowa's caucus has long been seen as important, in part because it is the first presidential vote in the country. In the 1972 presidential race, a little-known Democratic candidate from Georgia committed to intense campaigning in the state and won the caucus by a decisive margin. Jimmy Carter was thrust into the national spotlight and used the momentum from the Iowa caucus to carry him through to the White House. Ever since, Iowa has been a key state to establish momentum and set national perceptions about candidates.

In essence, there are caucuses and primaries within the 50 states.  Some use caucuses, some primaries, some use both and those who use primaries can use 'open' primaries (whereby you do not have to vote straight party) and 'closed' primaries (where you have to declare your party whether Republican or Democrat - not sure how Independent, Green parties handle this to be honest).

ANYway, Monday is the kickoff where this thing starts to get real.  After all the nominations/delegates and primaries/caucuses are done we get down to each party's Conventions which are in July, 2016.  Yep, it's exhausting but we should start narrowing it down to two candidates from each party pretty soon now.
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\\\"I have sworn upon the altar of God, eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man.\\\"  Thomas Jefferson
YooperModerator
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« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2016, 03:31:58 am »

Iowa Caucus primary debate results and breakdown (pretty much all in):


The Republican Party

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia/Rep

The Democratic Party

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia/Dem

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\\\"I have sworn upon the altar of God, eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man.\\\"  Thomas Jefferson
Rosella
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« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2016, 04:20:53 am »

^Interesting. And the difference in percentage points between Hillary and Sanders whisker-thin. Trump underperforming.
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Val
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« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2016, 08:32:27 am »

^^

Wonder if they can be rigged as the UK and Scottish referendum allegedly were.
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YooperModerator
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« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2016, 05:42:48 pm »

^Everything, of course, is potentially rig-able, but the Iowa Caucuses are more emotion-based, at least more so on the Democrat's side.  A bunch of people gather in a room and if there aren't enough candidates to get a vote or a delegate the person from, say, the Green party, listens to the voices of supporters to urge them to physically walk over to that candidates side in the room to be hand-raised counted, so it's a weirdo primary/caucus.  The Republicans actually write down/commit to a candidate on paper, individually.

The big issue here is the amount of delegates that each candidate received.  For my money, the big winners of the night and the ones that each candidate's campaign will be concerned about are Marc Rubio (R) and Bernie Sanders (D).  It was a bad night for Hillary who expected a clean sweep, not a tie.  It ended up being 49.something to 49.something. 

But, Hillary received 22 delegates, Bernie, 21, so a good start and will definitely mean more money pumping into Sanders' campaign.

One thing that's always bothered me is that the Democrats don't count the individual vote totals but Repubs do.  So, for instance, Cruz and Trump received, roughly, 50,000 to 46,000 votes (Rubio 43K) well over half of the 180K totals. 

Hillary's listed as getting 710 votes to Sanders' 697.  Here's the official explanation:  *The Iowa Democratic Party doesn't report vote totals. Figures are state delegate equivalents, which are the estimated number of state convention delegates the candidates would receive based on caucus results. National convention delegates for Democratic candidates are estimates and may change at later stages of the selection process.  (So, here is your only real option for a "rig").

On the Republican side, Ted Cruz may have 'won' but only received 8 delegates to Trump and Rubio's 7 each so Rubio's going to be the candidate to beat and he knows it.  Ben Carson (R) got 3 delegates which threw a monkey wrench into it as well. Cruz could've used those three delegates.  Ted Cruz, in my mind, and many others, is simply not electable in the long haul.  He's far too evangelical and may have done well in a grass roots state like Iowa but New Hampshire will tell a much different story, I think.  That is the state that is coming up next for a delegate vote.  Anything is possible in this election, tho, so all bets are off.  Interesting start, however.

Very exciting election all the way around and it's quite healthy to see such a high turnout (180,000 potential voters - 50% more than last election cycle) and many first-time/young voters. 
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\\\"I have sworn upon the altar of God, eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man.\\\"  Thomas Jefferson
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« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2016, 08:23:29 pm »

^ It was very interesting. We watched on CNN yesterday and have been viewing the debates and analysis over the past weeks. It is indeed not good news for Hillary as those young voters came out for Bernie in large numbers. He supposedly will do very well in New Hampshire too, but that momentum has to be built up as Sanders has so little money for advertising, compared to the rest. Trump made a rather humble speech at the end, I thought. Hardly surprising as he almost came third. Carson will perhaps retire from the race like Huckabee etc if he gets nowhere in NH.
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2016, 08:42:22 pm »

^I'm surprised the RNC isn't pushing Carson to bow out.  He's hurting the top candidates almost as much as an Independent would and will go absolutely nowhere so it's a waste of monies.  Personally, I think Sanders will see an infusion or transfusion of monies after this showing and NH.  This is good medicine for Hillary, I think.  She's thought she was Teflon like Bill was and she ain't.  And Bill Clinton did her no favors last night standing behind her looking like he was half-dead.  It was weird.

The one thing I've learned, so far, in this election, is that predicting anything is pretty much not going to be very accurate and it's really enjoyable to see the media try to get a grip on it as they have in the past but the voice of the people is something they haven't really plugged into yet so they were spinning late last night - "Oh, well, we didn't see that coming"  HA!.  We'll see.
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2016, 11:25:01 pm »

^ Yes, I believe Carson made some muddled statement about missing NH and SC caucuses and going down to Florida to rest with his family, which turned out to be a mistake. I think Carson and the other ones still lumping around at the bottom, including Jeb Bush, should employ their energies elsewhere and leave things clear for the three top candidates. Sanders brought the young out to vote which is always good. Shows the power of the Internet!

I cannot believe how Bill Clinton has aged in the past few years. He stood behind Hillary yesterday doing the old man thing of mouth hanging open for long periods.
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« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2016, 01:04:03 am »

I think Trump might pull this off; I don't think Hillary has the ability to pull this off and I don't think she's viable anymore. Clinton looked awful and I hope Sanders gets the nomination. If the GOP stops the infighting I think the GOP would win the vote and Presidency. To me Jeb is muddling things too much.
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« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2016, 03:25:50 am »

^IMO, the GOP will not stop the infighting unless an establishment candidate (Rubio) is nominated. I hope that doesn't happen, Rubio gives off a really slimy vibe to me.... I believe that political insiders want an establishment candidate for each side of the ticket--Clinton for the Democrats and Rubio for the Republicans--to ensure that regardless of who wins the election, nothing really changes and it is simply 'same sh*t different day' on November 9, 2016.   stop sauer Angry sob bye nervous
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« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2016, 01:31:47 am »

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/caucus/2016/02/03/editorial-something-smells-democratic-party/79777580/

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What happened Monday night at the Democratic caucuses was a debacle, period. Democracy, particularly at the local party level, can be slow, messy and obscure. But the refusal to undergo scrutiny or allow for an appeal reeks of autocracy.

The Iowa Democratic Party must act quickly to assure the accuracy of the caucus results, beyond a shadow of a doubt.

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First of all, the results were too close not to do a complete audit of results. Two-tenths of 1 percent separated Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. A caucus should not be confused with an election, but it’s worth noting that much larger margins trigger automatic recounts in other states.

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Second, too many questions have been raised. Too many accounts have arisen of inconsistent counts, untrained and overwhelmed volunteers, confused voters, cramped precinct locations, a lack of voter registration forms and other problems. Too many of us, including members of the Register editorial board who were observing caucuses, saw opportunities for error amid Monday night’s chaos.

The Sanders campaign is rechecking results on its own, going precinct by precinct, and is already finding inconsistencies, said Rania Batrice, a Sanders spokeswoman.

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So her (the) path forward is clear: Work with all the campaigns to audit results. Break silly party tradition and release the raw vote totals. Provide a list of each precinct coin flip and its outcome, as well as other information sought by the Register. Be transparent.

And then call for a blue ribbon commission to study how to improve the caucuses, as the Republican Party of Iowa did after its own fiasco in 2012. Monday’s mess showed that it’s time for the Democrats to change, too.

Right on time before the town hall showdown with Bernie and Hillary at tonight's debate between the two in New Hampshire!  Aaak.  Primary is next Tuesday.  Oh boy.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2016, 01:36:21 am by YooperModerator » Logged


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« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2016, 03:45:04 am »

^ There should be some independent scrutineers appointed IMHO so this sort of thing doesn't happen. It's too important to be messy like this. Bernie Sanders is miles ahead at the moment  in NH, I believe. It will be interesting to see whether he can keep the pressure up. On the other side Trump has added some extra appearances in that State. I see he's back to form, accusing Cruz of 'stealing the result' by spreading false rumours about Dr Carson. It's all very lively and interesting and I'll certainly be watching the results next Wednesday (Oz time.)
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Rebecca
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« Reply #12 on: February 05, 2016, 05:40:38 pm »

^Trump is not wrong in criticizing the Cruz campaign for tweeting that Carson was out of the race and having their operatives announce during the caucuses that Carson voters should switch to Cruz. The Cruz campaign knew exactly what they were doing..... But given Iowa's past success (not!) at picking the nominee Cruz shouldn't be celebrating too early.  wopedo
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« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2016, 08:28:16 pm »

^^^^^ The Clintons cannot believe that they no longer are relevant.  They are old, sick and past it.  Bill once had great charisma and could pull in the crowds.  Hillary never did/could.    They simply cannot accept that they are no longer going to have a powerful position and will have to retire.  Or go to prison.  It is a mockery of our legal system that Hillary is still swooping around pretending as if there is not an indictment nipping at her heels.   Anyone else would already be behind bars.

I am absolutely loving how Trump has turned this election on its ear and is publicizing non-PC issues (immigration) and pointing out the underhandedness and manipulation of the media (both liberal and conservative), as well as the threat of tampering with election results (Iowa was just his shot across the bow).    It is fabulous and long overdue.     
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Rebecca
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« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2016, 10:52:01 pm »

^True, but I wouldn't count Hillary out just yet. The Clinton's are said to have dirt on everyone in DC and she and Bill will be willing to do whatever it takes to get her in. Regarding the mockery of our legal system, IMO it isn't just the Clinton's-- probably 75 to 90% our political leadership should be in prison. I won't be holding my breath for that one though..... ick
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« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2016, 04:48:45 am »

There are many people who should be in prison, no doubt, but Hillary's activity while Secretary of State is talked about non-stop on news shows.  We all know about it.  No putting the toothpaste back in the tube.  And while she and Bill have plenty of dirt, evidently Obama has more on her because he steamrolled over her in 2008.   
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« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2016, 01:01:34 pm »

Yes of course Obama was able to best Hillary in 2008, but IMO one of the main reasons he was able to do it so easily is that the public/media were caught up in the idea of having an African American president. Hillary couldn't top that. I'm not trying to insert race here in a way that offends anyone, but I think that the narrative of voting for 'the 1st black president' was a powerful one that overruled anything that the other candidates could offer.
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« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2016, 01:40:17 pm »

Hillary is going to spend her life running from her past and it''s something that always catches up to us in the end. Hillary has so much damage done to so many people even as President it would haunt her until she's hounded from office. She has dirt, but so does everyone on everyone. The minute she becomes an official candidate, the public will have the right to know and someone will find out about her.
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« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2016, 03:50:14 pm »

^^ Nah.  If it was all about just an African-American, then Alan Keyes was running in 2008 as well, and had run before, and was more qualified than BO.  And if people were excited about "firsts" then why not a first woman president.   Nope, I think the Clintons finally -- for the first time ever -- were out-dirted.
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« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2016, 07:53:23 pm »

I don't think they were out-dirted, they were out-smarted. And many people didn't like Hillary's 'entitlement'-attitude. She felt that the presidency was owed to her for some reason, just like she does now. And that ticks many people off.

And of course right now there is the issue of her not being very believable; saying she will be tough on the banks but at the same time she gladly pocketed 600K for a few speeches at Goldman Sachs. You don't bite the hand that feeds you, people know that.
And of course she has plenty of scandals in her closet; Whitewater (from before Bill was president) and the GOP will milk Benghazi as well as the private server (totally ignoring that Condy Rice was also using a private server for years).

I think that if Bernie Sanders will be successfull in getting young people to the polls in the primaries, he has a good chance of winning the Democratic nomination. And if these same young voters show up in November, who knows what will happen.

Trump will be unacceptable for many moderates as well as independents, and plenty of GOP politicians and voters loath Rafael Eduardo Cruz (and of course he was born in Canada). The GOP establishment wants Rubio, but he has a few skeletons in his closet...like claiming his parents fled communism in Cuba while it is proven that his parents left Cuba several years before Castro came to power. Essentially his parents were economic immigrants, which makes his anti-immigrant position a bit, well, hypocrite. And he will be called out on that, especially if he turns out to be the GOP candidate.
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